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With the international break at hand, we figured we’d take a look at each remaining playoff team and gauge their hopes of winning MLS Cup presented by Audi on Dec. 7. We’ll go from lowest seed to highest seed, starting with the East.
Well… now what? Atlanta United have just finished pulling off the biggest upset in MLS history. That’s not the end of the story though.
The path behind
Regardless of what happens next, they still have a helluva story. You only have to go back to Oct. 2 to get to a point in the timeline where most everyone had begun preparing their obituaries for this side. Josef Martínez had just scored a brace at Mercedes-Benz Stadium to deliver a 2-1 loss to his former team. At that moment in time, Atlanta needed a couple of wins and a whole lot of breaks to go their way if they even wanted a shot at the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. Frankly, it didn’t even look like they were all that interested in making it happen.
But then they got wins against the Red Bulls and Orlando City. And every break they could have hoped for broke. Suddenly, they were in the playoffs. Suddenly, they were winning their Wild Card matchup with CF Montréal on penalties. Suddenly they were taking down Inter Miami at home in front of 69,000 people. And suddenly they were going on the road and dismissing Lionel Messi and company from the playoffs well ahead of schedule.
The path ahead
Now, they keep going. Their post-Miami life starts with a trip to Orlando City. Then it would be off to New York to face either New York City FC or New York Red Bulls. Then it would be off to the west. They’ll be on the road the rest of the way no matter what. That’s just life as a No. 9 seed that only picked up 40 points in the regular season. I don’t think they’ll mind too much.
Can they do it?
Even after taking down Miami, it still seems far-fetched. After all, this team sputtered through the regular season. Only one team, Chicago Fire FC, held a lead less often than Atlanta United.
It would be foolish to count them out though. First and foremost: Vibes. Aura. Je ne sais quoi. They’re the definition of “hot at the right time” at this point. You never count that out.
Second, all of the big bads have already been knocked out. They killed the biggest bad themselves, while Columbus and FC Cincinnati are out of the way. The East is wide open.
That leaves Atlanta up against Orlando and the New Yorks. And for all of Atlanta’s struggles this season, those struggles didn’t come against these three teams. Atlanta picked up three wins and three draws in six games against the remaining sides. They earned a win and two draws on the road.
We’re not far removed from those results either. Those two wins they needed to get at the end of the season just to survive came against the Red Bulls and Orlando City in games where New York and Orlando had plenty to play for. There is proof of concept in addition to the rapidly increasing level of self belief.
Why won’t they do it?
The easiest explanation here is that they’ll be on the road the rest of the way. The one constant in MLS is that winning on the road is hard. Atlanta have already made a legendary run. If they pull off three straight road wins in addition to what they’ve already done, we’ll be talking about this as the all-time greatest run in MLS history for as long as you and I are on Earth.
The more complex explanation is that they may not match up as well against the rest of these teams as they did Inter Miami. Inter Miami’s inability to put pressure on the ball in the buildup and their inability to defend in transition made Atlanta’s life easy in attack. The rest of these teams won’t offer the same gentle pathway to the final third.
The trade-off of course is that Atlanta won’t be defending for their life every time Orlando or the New Yorks get forward. But the scrappy, more MLS-y game the rest of the three teams will offer is the kind of game Atlanta lost more often than not this season. Then again, this isn’t quite the same team, is it?
What will decide whether or not they do it?
- Brad Guzan staying or not staying nuclear levels of hot
- Alexey Miranchuk getting on the ball with time to create chances
- Mercury being in retrograde or whatever aligning of the planets has happened to give this team super powers
- Stian Gregersen’s health
- The effectiveness of the 5-3-2 setup they’ve needed to opt for after Brooks Lennon’s injury against teams that are not Inter Miami
- Jay Fortune’s health
- Lucky breaks in the penalty shootout that feel inevitable against a team like Orlando that wants to make your life miserable in a way Miami couldn’t
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