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Neither of these teams cruised over the finish line in the regular season. Yeah, the Galaxy won three of their last four, but they faltered in the very last moment of Decision Day. They wouldn’t even be facing Colorado if they didn’t allow a stoppage-time winner to Houston. They had a bead on the top spot in the West and, instead, finished second in the West.
It could be worse though. They could have done whatever the Rapids have been up to since Leagues Cup. Over their eight games since making a run to third place in the tournament, Colorado averaged 1.13 points per game. Only two playoff teams, Red Bulls and Vancouver, were worse over that stretch.
It could have been even more of a disaster considering their defensive record in that stretch. Colorado allowed 1.99 expected goals per game. That’s the worst mark in the league since Leagues Cup. Allowing a ton of chances is always bad. Allowing a ton of chances while getting the second-worst shot-stopping numbers in the league from Zack Steffen is absolutely not ideal.
That seems especially true as they head into a matchup with one of the best attacks in the league. If we want to stick with our theme of post-Leagues Cup production, the Galaxy are at the top of MLS since then when it comes to expected goals created. They averaged 2.12 xG created per game over eight games, the only team in MLS to average more than 2.00 xG in that span.
On paper, we can see where this is heading. There are going to be a ton of goals in this series. And if you’re asking me personally to pick between LA’s all-time productive quartet of Riqui Puig, Gabriel Pec, Dejan Joveljic and Joseph Paintsil and a very solid Rapids attack, I’m going to lean toward the group that set records this year over a group that played well.
Maybe the Rapids regroup though. They haven’t had a ton of time to rest up since Decision Day, but maybe they took a moment to breathe. Frankly, they’ve seemed gassed mentally and physically since that deep Leagues Cup run.
That Leagues Cup run is proof of concept. We know they have a deep tournament run in them. The big question is whether or not that version of the Rapids even exists anymore.
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