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Now that we know who’s advanced from the Wild Card matches, we can take on the most important task of the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
Last year, we encouraged everyone to join us in our first-ever “Failure Bracket.” We handed you the task of picking the worst possible bracket in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs Bracket Challenge, and so many of you failed so hard. Some of you even failed at failing. We had three people accidentally get the entirety of Round One correct in the traditional sense. Yet none of you got the entire round “correct” in the “trying to miss every pick” sense.
It’s time to correct that. You can join The Daily Kickoff’s Bracket Challenge league. From there, your job is to pick the worst bracket possible. Remember: PICK THE TEAM YOU THINK IS GOING TO LOSE. This is a monument to mediocrity. Not a pursuit of greatness.
Here’s how my bracket shook out.
WESTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE
(1) LAFC vs. (8) Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Failure Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Ain’t no one making money betting against LAFC the last few years… unless they’re playing Columbus.
(4) Seattle Sounders FC vs. (5) Houston Dynamo FC
Failure Pick: Houston Dynamo FC
I went back and forth on this one multiple times. Both teams have very similar traits that make picking against and for them rather difficult. Only two teams in the West allowed fewer than 40 goals this season and they’re meeting in this series. They’ve also scored fewer goals than any other playoff team in the West. Goals will be at a premium and, for our purposes, that increases the variance of what could happen here. We could look back a couple of weeks from now and be talking about how we should have seen Houston winning twice on penalties despite scoring no goals in regulation time from a mile away.
In the end, the Sounders have earned 2.22 points per game since Leagues Cup. We’re going to lean towards the hotter team and the home team.
(3) Real Salt Lake vs. (6) Minnesota United FC
Failure Pick: Real Salt Lake
I couldn’t get out of the West without picking an upset. And this series seems primed for one. RSL are an excellent side, but they’re still integrating new pieces while getting absolutely nothing out of Chicho Arango for months. That’s not a recipe for postseason success.
Meanwhile, the Loons have been one of the hottest teams in the league since DP striker Kelvin Yeboah arrived. He’s scored seven times in his first eight starts and the Loons have been putting up outstanding numbers. Since Leagues Cup, they’re third in MLS points per game and first in expected points per game. This hasn’t been a fluke.
(2) LA Galaxy vs. (7) Colorado Rapids
Failure Pick: Colorado Rapids
Both teams score a ton of goals and allow a ton of goals. Normally that kind of variance would worry us, but it’s clear the Rapids have called it a day since finishing in third place in Leagues Cup. They’ve averaged 1.13 points per game since then and their underlying numbers haven’t been much better. “Cooked” comes to mind. They could always surprise us, but that doesn’t look likely.
EASTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE
(1) Inter Miami CF vs. (9) Atlanta United
Failure Pick: Atlanta United
I’m well aware of what Atlanta did against Miami this year. The Five Stripes took four of six points from the Herons this season. No other team did that. And, yes, Atlanta haved pulled together three straight remarkable results. And, yes, I can remind everyone again that Atlanta’s underlying numbers have been much better than Miami’s this season. But… c’mon, I’ve got to play this safe here, right?
(4) Orlando City SC vs. (5) Charlotte FC
Failure Pick: Orlando City SC
My Eastern Conference upset pick has Orlando coming up short against Charlotte. I… do not feel great about it, but I would have felt worse about going chalk.
Here’s the thing: Both of these teams are “hot at the right time.” The Lions have been one of the hottest teams in the East on points per game since Leagues Cup. Only Miami and Columbus have earned more points. No one in the East has had better underlying numbers in that span.
But Charlotte are hot, too. They earned 13 points over their final five games. They bounced back from a three-game losing streak (that admittedly included a loss to Orlando) in style. With their solidity on defense and their increasing cohesiveness in attack, they feel like the kind of team most likely to pull off an upset in Round One. I’ll go with The Crown here.
(3) FC Cincinnati vs. (6) New York City FC
Failure Pick: New York City FC
NYCFC’s penchant for looking like the best team in the East at random moments has me worried here. But, in the end, I think Cincy are too experienced to falter against an extremely young and volatile team like NYCFC.
(2) Columbus Crew vs. (7) New York Red Bulls
Failure Pick: New York Red Bulls
In my non-failure bracket, I have the Crew winning MLS Cup again. So, yeah. I don’t think the team that’s averaged 0.67 points per game since Leagues Cup is going to beat Columbus.
WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
(5) Houston Dynamo FC vs. (8) Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Failure Pick: Houston Dynamo FC
Have I mentioned I can’t believe what happened last night? If Vancouver upset LAFC, I’m sure as hell not picking against them in the next round. I’m a man willing to learn lessons.
(3) Real Salt Lake vs. (7) Colorado Rapids
Failure Pick: Colorado Rapids
The Bizzaro Rocky Mountain Cup doesn’t end well for the Rapids. Did I mention they haven’t been all that great at soccer lately?
EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
(4) Orlando City SC vs. (9) Atlanta United
Failure Pick: Atlanta United
All due respect to the Five Stripes and their late-season push, but this group runs out of gas eventually… right? Right???
(6) New York City FC vs. (7) New York Red Bulls
Failure Pick: New York Red Bulls
The Bizarro Hudson River Derby goes to the team that just won this exact matchup 5-1 a few weeks ago.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
(5) Houston Dynamo FC vs. (7) Colorado Rapids
Failure Pick: Colorado Rapids
Houston are the much, much better team right now. I feel bad that I had to put them this deep into the bracket.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
(9) Atlanta United vs. (7) New York Red Bulls
Failure Pick: New York Red Bulls
The narrative is Atlanta typically don’t beat the Red Bulls… except in the playoffs.
MLS FAILURE CUP
Colorado Rapids vs. New York Red Bulls
Failure Pick: New York Red Bulls
For me, this is the absolute least likely matchup. Both of these teams are nosediving just in time for the playoffs. If it comes to this, I’m picking against New York. We have over a decade-plus of data points here suggesting they won’t win MLS Cup. Precedent is on my side.
TOTAL NUMBER OF GOALS SCORED IN THE TOURNAMENT: 1
And it’s going to be an own goal, too.
Happy failing to the rest of you, but I’m feeling pretty bad about this year.
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