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The West is suddenly uncluttered, the Wild Card race in the East is approaching a surprise ending, and Inter Miami are on the verge of history. Let’s talk it out.
TORONTO FC - 0 | INTER MIAMI - 1
L. Campana (90'+3')
Despite being outshot 15-4 and putting up just 0.3 xG to Toronto’s 1.5, Inter Miami found a moment in stoppage time for Luis Suárez and Leo Campana to kick the ball back and forth to each other until Campana put it in the back of the net.
I…I just…..look, if they keep shoving the soccer nerds in the locker like this 15 or 20 more times I’m going to start getting mad. No team has ever just outright rejected the concept of xG like this and it’s going to break me. That overperformance has them on the verge of setting the MLS points record. They need a win on Decision Day against New England to get it done. And they don’t take records back just because a newsletter writer gets annoyed about math.
Toronto’s season officially ended with that stoppage-time goal. They have no more games and no chance at the playoffs. They lost 12 of their last 17 after a solid start to the season. It’s going to be a long offseason.
FC CINCINNATI - 1 | ORLANDO CITY - 3
L. Acosta (45') | R. Enrique (10', 72'), I. Angulo (66')
Orlando did it! And at just the right time. The Lions finally have a win over a contender and have officially cemented themselves as a real dark horse in the playoffs. No one has been hotter over the last couple of months and now they can say they aren’t just bullying lower-table teams. This is a huge, confidence-building win and it puts them on the verge of clinching a home playoff spot. NYCFC is the only team that can catch Orlando and the Pigeons need to win out to do it.
Cincy…man, do we need to revoke their contender status? It seems like the injuries at center back and roster turnover are catching up to them. They’re missing an edge right now. And they’ve lost three straight—all three against playoff teams—because of it.
COLUMBUS CREW - 3 | PHILADELPHIA UNION - 2
Cucho Hernández (4', 76'), M. Farsi (41') | N. Harriel (25'), J. McGlynn (78')
Cucho delivered a brace via his head and the Crew kept the Union at arm's length. With Cincinnati coming up short against Orlando, Columbus have the second spot in the East locked up and can take their final two games as easily as they’d prefer. Of course, for MLS Cup purposes, they’d probably want to keep trying to stay ahead of LAFC in the overall standings. Most points hosts.
The Union are in trouble. A brutal stretch run is catching up with them while CF Montréal and D.C. United have snuck up over Philly at the last second. It seemed like the Union were the clear favorite to make it into a Wild Card spot. Now they have to take down Cincinnati on Decision Day and get some help.
D.C. UNITED - 2 | NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION - 0
M. Peltola (74' OG) | P. Santos (3'), C. Benteke (8')
D.C. immediately jumped out to a 2-0 lead and that’s all they needed to pick up three points. Suddenly, they’re sitting in eighth place in the East and just need a point on Decision Day to make the playoffs.
It’s not totally clear how we’ve gotten here. They seemed dead a couple of times over the last few weeks. But they’ve quietly picked up 14 points over the last seven games and no one else has seemed all that interested in holding onto a Wild Card spot. They’re playing good ball and Christian Benteke is going to win the Golden Boot. They’re a game away from securing a successful year one under Troy Lesesne.
The Revs are dead. They were lucky to make it this far. Statistically, they were as bad or worse than San Jose this year.
CHARLOTTE FC - 2 | CF MONTRÉAL - 0
K. Swiderski (34'), P. Agyemang (90'+4')
Charlotte have found their footing. After sputtering out of the gates post-Leagues Cup, The Crown have picked up 10 points over their last four games. They’ve worked their way up to fifth place and, with some help from NYCFC, can potentially hold onto that spot on Decision Day.
Montréal hit a wall here for the first time in weeks. They’re still in a Wild Card spot though. A draw on Decision Day would ensure they keep it.
ATLANTA UNITED - 2 | NEW YORK RED BULLS - 1
A. Miranchuk (75' PK), T. Wolff (90'+7') | D. Nealis (Red Card 66'), S. Ngoma Jr. (90'+14')
For the second time ever in the regular season, Atlanta United have beaten New York Red Bulls. Truly a miracle. A goal and an assist from new DP Alexey Miranchuk led the way for the Five Stripes against a Red Bulls side that went down to 10 men midway through the second half.
That miracle comes at a much-needed time for Atlanta, who need a win over Orlando and help to make it into a Wild Card spot on Decision Day. It does not come at a much-needed time for New York, who have dropped all the way to seventh in the East now. They could only hold onto a home playoff spot for so long with this kind of form. They have three wins in their last 17 games.
COLORADO RAPIDS - 0 | SEATTLE SOUNDERS - 1
A. Rusnák (48')
All it took was a goal from Albert Rusnák. Somehow, after all that from Seattle this year, they’ve ended up clinching a home playoff spot and can still finish as high as second. They’re on 56 points heading into Decision Day. A win would put them on 59 points for just the fifth time in club history. Even with things feeling like a slog at times for this group, they’ve somehow found a way to put in a season other teams would do anything to have. They’re a real contender to make it to MLS Cup out of the West because of course they are. Never count out the Sounders.
The Rapids are in serious danger of falling down into a Wild Card spot on Decision Day. They’ve played well all year, but are faltering down the stretch. Their defense and goalkeeping are catching up with them.
ST. LOUIS CITY SC - 3 | HOUSTON DYNAMO FC - 0
S. Becher (14', 47'), J . Nerwinski (90'+2') | F. Escobar (Red Card 79')
Ugh. Houston. What? Yuck. Seriously?
Just a disastrous performance against a team that had nothing to play for. The Dynamo officially can’t reach a home playoff spot and, if I’m doing math right, there’s even a timeline where they fall all the way to ninth in the West on Decision Day. By the way, they have to face the Galaxy to close the season. It’s time to worry.
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS FC - 0 | MINNESOTA UNITED - 1
H. Dotson (24' PK)
The Loons are one of the hottest teams in the league. They’ve earned 16 points from their last seven games and, for now, are sitting in seventh place, one spot above Vancouver.
The Whitecaps do have a game in hand, but Minnesota will be in position to jump the Whitecaps and the Rapids on Decision Day if things fall their way. They’ve crammed three separate seasons into one year it feels like. And they’ve found the best version of themselves at the best time.
Vancouver are what they are at this point. No one will expect them to make a push for a trophy.
LA GALAXY - 2 | AUSTIN FC - 1
G. Pec (31') , D. Joveljic (76') | S. Driussi (55')
The Galaxy doing Galaxy things. Nothing new here. Even if LAFC win out, the Galaxy will just need a point on Decision Day to clinch the top spot.
SPORTING KC - 0 | LAFC - 3
D. Martínez (14'), C. Olivera (45'+1'), A. Long (69')
Well, LAFC are no longer struggling down the stretch. Playing Sporting KC a couple of times has probably helped a lot with that, but still, they’re back on track. David Martínez is coming on nicely at the end of the season and they’ve all but assured at least a second-place finish in the West. Two wins over their final two games would at least give them a shot at first.
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES - 0 | REAL SALT LAKE - 1
D. Luna (78')
Diego Luna made the difference in this one. The 21-year-old is up to seven goals and 12 assists on the season and RSL are up to fourth place in the standings. The win secured a well-deserved home playoff spot and kept a second-place finish in play.
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