From MLS:
HANDICAPPING THE GOLDEN BOOT RACE
This week has been the kind of week where we can relax and just take stock of the league at large as teams reach or near the ⅓ mark of the season. Unless your team won in the US Open Cup, then that was always your focus and you've never cared more about a competition. But if they lost, then yeah, just a week to relax and take stock.Anyway, we certainly don't know everything at this point. But it's kind of the first time this year we can say we know anything at all. So knowing what we know, let's take a look at the Golden Boot race and see who might be on their way towards a historic season.DON'T COUNT THEM OUTDjordje Mihailovic - CFM (5g, 2.623 xG), Daniel Gazdag - PHI (5g, 5.079 xG), Leo Campana - MIA (5g, 2.741 xG), Ronaldo Cisneros - ATL (4g, 3.012 xG), Carlos Vela - LAFC (4g, 3.25 xG), Adam Buksa (4g, 2.057 xG), Jeremy Ebobisse - SJ (5g, 2.768 xG)This group is the most interesting collection of names in this race I could come up with. You could make a reasonable argument for nearly all of them, even if you didn't wholeheartedly believe in that argument. And that's like the whole ethos of The Daily Kickoff so we're going to do that right now.Mihailovic has been phenomenal this year and even if he doesn't play a position that truly sets himself up to be a constant threat in scoring positions, he's good enough to find a way.Gazdag is pretty much the same as Mihailovic. Keep in mind though, Gazdag not only finds himself in a more advanced role for Philadelphia, but he also takes penalties. That can take you a long, long way. Although, I'm not sure he necessarily needs them. His expected goals numbers are shockingly high for a guy at the top of a diamond. He's second in the league in xG. I know we don't think of Philadelphia as an attacking powerhouse, but is their uber-direct style of play tricking us into sleeping on Daniel Gazdag? It's totally possible.Campana was on a bit of a heater there for a second and even if he's outpacing his underlying numbers pretty considerably, it's fun to include people that can just pour on goals at any time during the season.Cisneros is fascinating to me because he needs a couple of things to happen: He needs Atlanta to be good and he needs teams to not figure him out. If defending Cisneros isn't something that can be accomplished by finally getting tape on the guy, then he's got a chance to make a surge. Since he began starting games for Atlanta, he's leading the league in xG per game.Vela isn't quite as involved in scoring goals for LAFC right now as he was in 2019. But even with a bit of a different role, his usage rate is absurd and he's still Carlos Vela. Even with him having a "quiet" year when it comes to scoring opportunities, he's already grabbed four goals and could start finding the net in abundance at any moment. The good news for LAFC is that they won't need him to do that for them to keep being one of the best teams in the league.Buksa has scored in five straight games after last night's Open Cup game and seems to be awaking from a sleepy start. I don't know how sustainable it is for him right now, but he's also Adam Buksa. With Carles Gil there to feed him, he's going to keep getting opportunities to put the ball on target.And, finally, Jeremy Ebobisse is super likable, fun and good on set pieces. I wanted to include him even if I don't think San Jose's structure as a whole is going to lead to anyone challenging for a scoring title. Especially as they transition from sleeping on a mattress on the floor in the corner of the room and not setting an alarm to a more traditional 9 to 5 job lifestyle.Is that everyone who's not outperforming their xG at an absurd level or who isn't the second-best goal scorer on their own team? No? Well, we've only got so much time here…..Ok, fine, one more. Hany Mukhtar only has two goals so far but is third in the league in total xG. Don't sleep too hard on him now that he's set up shop in GEODIS Park.OK, BUT REALLY, DON'T COUNT THEM OUTDiego Rubio - COL (5g, 4.357 xG), Chicharito - LAG (5g, 4.09 xG), Taty Castellanos - NYCFC (5g, 5.351 xG)There are a couple of more traditional names on this list, but I had to mention Rubio. In theory, he should have even more space to operate with Gyasi Zardes on the team and he was already thriving this season. My biggest concern is that Colorado won't be inclined to be consistent enough in attack the rest of the way to get him enough service to keep up with the rest of the group. But that may be a hot take considering we're nearly ⅓ of the way through the year and Rubio is fifth in the league in total xG and fourth in the league in xG per game. On top of that, he's not just making the most of his chances, he's finding a lot of them. Rubio is fifth in the league in shots. I wouldn't put any of my own personal supply of TAM down on it, but Rubio wouldn't be an insane dark horse pick at all.Meanwhile, Chicharito is doing exactly what you'd expect him to be doing. He's ninth in the league in total xG, he's getting up a Diego Rubio-level of shots (seriously, they're tied for fifth) and he's just generally existing as the focal point of LA's attack. That being said, LA's attack isn't doing him a ton of favors. Plus, it kind of seems like the Galaxy are slowly morphing into a defense-first side. It's a good idea for the Galaxy's playoff hopes considering they're the best defense in the league so far. It's not such a good idea for getting Chicharito a fancy trophy of a shoe at the end of the year.And, then there's Taty Castellanos. And, to be totally honest, my opinion is that the only thing stopping Taty Castellanos from winning the Golden Boot for the second year in a row is Taty Castellanos. He's playing out of his mind again and the only reason he isn't in first already is due to CCL. He leads the league in total expected goals and in expected goals per game. He's tied for the league lead in shots and he plays on a team that is liable to score five goals in a game at any time. But, he might be too good. He might be on his way to Europe during the summer. And it's hard to win the Golden Boot from an ocean away. Just something to keep in mind.CURRENT FAVORITESSebastian Driussi - ATX (7g, 3.935 xG), Jesus Ferreira - DAL (7g, 4.395 xG), Jesus Jimenez - TOR (7g, 4.091 xG), Brandon Vazquez - CIN (6g, 4.316 xG)And, finally, we have our last group. The current front runners. And…well…frankly…I don't think I'd bet on this group against the field. Driussi is the poster child for Austin's historic rate of goalscoring compared to their xG so far. Jimenez finds quality chances better than any forward in the league right now but doesn't find them consistently enough and probably won't on a Toronto team that's looking downtrodden right now.That leaves us with Jesus Ferreira and Brandon Vazquez. You could talk me into both of them but it would take some work. Ferreira and Dallas have a great attacking core but aren't necessarily a juggernaut when it comes to chance creation. Vazquez still has to prove he can do it over the course of a full season, as does his entire team. There are questions there. But they are finding more consistent chances than the other two guys in this group and, in my opinion, they'll both be pushing for a spot with the USMNT in Qatar. That might be enough to power both of them to a full season of top-level goal scoring.Like last year though, it's tough to pick out a clear favorite. Maybe let's just be glad there are a ton of talented goal scorers in this league and call it a day? We probably need our rest before this race gets chaotic at the end of the year.