HANDICAPPING THE US OPEN CUP
The US Open Cup returns tonight and, in some ways, it starts in earnest tonight. We're officially at the point where committing the brunt of your resources towards winning this competition is worth your while if you're an MLS team. It does mean there's no more plausible deniability if you lose to a USL team, but it also means you're just three wins away from a CCL spot and a trophy. You have to go all-in at this point. So let's take a look at our remaining MLS teams, their potential remaining games and see if we can put some odds on who's going to be lifting the oldest trophy in the country.
We'll go least likely to most likely. For suspense.
Orlando City
This doesn't mean Orlando are the worst team in the competition. It does mean they're probably the worst team on their side of the bracket. I know where they are in the standings, trust me. But this is a team whose underlying numbers suggest that they're among the luckiest teams in the league so far. And, despite grabbing a solid collection of points, they haven't looked all that sharp to the eye test either.
That's not to say they won't improve. I think the ceiling is relatively high for a group still working with new pieces. But they have to go through a Nashville team that's built to make tournament games like this miserable to get to the quarterfinal, then they have to beat either NYCFC or RBNY. That's an extremely difficult path. And it's why they're less likely to do it than our next team…
Sporting KC
They've been *bad*. Atrocious even. But they will be coming into this round with some confidence after taking down Nashville midweek.
That being said, even with their "easy" matchup with Union Omaha that they're probably going to hilariously struggle with because every game from here on out is the biggest in every Union Omaha player's life, they just don't have the firepower to match up well with anyone on the other side of the bracket or even with the Galaxy in the semifinals. Ya know, if the Galaxy get past Sacramento.
New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls and their style of play have never particularly thrived in tournament play. Couple that with the fact that they might be more inclined to rotate their lineup to save their legs and that they have to face NYCFC and either Orlando or Nashville to get to the final and that's a bear of a final stretch. It wouldn't be *that* surprising to see them get the job done all told, but maybe more so than our next few teams.
Nashville SC
Did I mention that Nashville are built to have a high floor in tournament settings? The same kind of conservative mindset that can make them frustrating to watch in the regular season can be exactly the kind of style that makes it more likely you have a decent chance to pull out a result in every game you play in. In a tournament, making it tough for the other team to score can be all it takes to get the job done.
Obviously, they'll need a little more going forward to make it count. It was a good sign to see Ake Loba more involved in attack over the weekend but he needs to prove that kind of performance is replicable. Otherwise, Nashville may be back to Hany Mukhtar trying to make some magic. Or worse…penalties.
It will be difficult either way. Orlando certainly aren't going to lay down and whoever wins NYCFC-RBNY will be a major challenge. Then it's likely you either see the Galaxy or an SKC team that, uh, just beat you at home. Seriously Nashville, what were you doing this weekend?
NYCFC
They're the best team left because they're maybe the best team in the league. They're certainly in a top tier that includes Seattle and LAFC. They just have so much firepower and they're fantastic defensively. I don't know how much more I really need to explain to you about the reigning MLS Cup champions. A US Open Cup would certainly be a nice start to Nick Cushing's tenure though. I'd imagine he'll push pretty hard the rest of the way in this competition.
However, despite their talent level, they don't have the most likely road. That belongs to…
LA Galaxy
Don't get it confused. I think LA are either the fourth or fifth best team left in the competition depending on whether they figure out they can start Dejan Joveljic and Chicharito at the same time. But on paper, they have the easiest road to the final by far.
They'll take on Sacramento Republic FC of the USL Championship tonight and while that won't be easy to handle a team giving it 100% to pull off a cupset, they have the talent advantage. The same goes for whoever they play in the next round. Whether that's SKC or, more likely, Union Omaha. From there it gets a little more difficult. They're going to get one of the best teams in MLS in the final if they make it.
But hey, the likelihood they do seems high. And that makes their odds higher than anyone else.
Except for Union Omaha. Let's be real, we know how this tournament is going to go.
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