MLS Expected Goals & More

By Anonymous (not verified), May 28, 2025

For Immediate Release
MLS Communications

Expected Goals: Upcoming Milestones for Matchday 15

Tai Baribo on Scorching Goal-Scoring Pace

No player is hotter in Major League Soccer than Philadelphia Union forward Tai Baribo, who is up to 13 goals in the club’s first 15 games, which leads the MLS Golden Boot presented by Audi race by three goals. The Israeli international now has six goals in his last four games as the Union ride a seven-game unbeaten run (5-0-2) into Matchday 16.

Baribo can make more history on Wednesday evening as another goal would help him become the fourth player in league history to score at least 14 times in the club’s opening 16 games, joining Carlos Vela (16 in 2019), Josef Martínez (14 in 2018), and Roy Lassiter (14 in 1999). Of those previous three to do so, Vela and Martínez both went on to earn MLS Golden Boot and Landon Donovan MLS MVP honors in their respective seasons. Baribo can continue his strong case for both when Philadelphia travel to face Toronto FC in a midweek showdown at BMO Field (7:30 p.m. ET, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV / Apple TV+).

The most goals scored by a player through a club’s first 16 games in MLS history:

Alonso Martínez Closing in on Club History

One of the most underrated goal scorers across MLS over the last two years has been New York City FC’s Alonso Martínez, who added his eighth goal of the season in Sunday’s win over Chicago Fire FC. Martínez has found the back of the net 24 times since the beginning of 2024, despite only playing a shade over 2,700 minutes during that span.

The Costa Rican international was rewarded for his knack for goal-scoring earlier this season when he signed a contract extension with the club through 2027 with options through 2029. Despite New York City FC’s many talented players in their club history, only two have had multiple seasons with at least 10 goals scored – David Villa (four times) and Valentín “Taty” Castellanos (three). Martínez will look to join those club legends with a brace on Wednesday evening at home against Houston Dynamo FC (7:30 p.m. ET, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV).

The most seasons with at least 10 goals in New York City FC history:

Sir Sam Surridge Going for Another Double-Digit Goal Season

With Nashville SC flying high on a six-game unbeaten run and climbing to third in the Eastern Conference, the side from the Music City looks a top contender heading into the second half of the season. In head coach B.J. Callaghan’s first full season in charge, Designated Player forward Sam Surridge has looked like the star striker the club has needed.

After a brace against Toronto FC over the weekend, Surridge is now up to eight goals on the season. Surridge scored 12 in 2024, with many of those coming after Callaghan took control of the side and the forward can become the fourth English-born player in MLS history to produce multiple seasons with at least 10 goals. Surridge will look to accomplish this with a two-goal performance against the Columbus Crew in a matchup featuring two of the Eastern Conference’s top contenders on Matchday 16 (8 p.m. ET, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV / Apple TV+ / FS1, FOX Deportes).

The most seasons with at least 10 goals by English-born players in MLS history:

Big Dunc Back on the Scoresheet for Orlando

Orlando City SC tied their club-record unbeaten streak of 12 games on Saturday when they took down the Portland Timbers at home by a score of 1-0. The lone goal scorer in the match was Duncan McGuire, who recorded his first goal of the season. McGuire missed much of the offseason and early part of the year after recovering from shoulder surgery, but he has now started three of the last five matches for the Lions.

With the goal, McGuire tied Dom Dwyer and Kaká (24) for the fourth-most goals in club history and he will look to eclipse them on Wednesday night when Orlando travels to face Atlanta United at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (7:30 p.m. ET, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV).

The most regular season goals scored in Orlando City SC history:

Minnesota United Not One to Fall Behind

Through the opening 15 games of the season, Minnesota United FC have shown an impressive ability to keep the game at bay and not fall behind. The Loons have only trailed in 6.8% of all minutes across regular season action this season, which is by far the best number across the league with Orlando City SC next closest at 9.9%.

This has mostly been due to a stellar defense which has allowed the third-fewest goals in the league (14) in 2025, behind only Vancouver Whitecaps FC (12) and the New England Revolution (13). On Matchday 16, Minnesota will square off against Vancouver as the two sides look to maintain their strong percentage of not trailing in matches in 2025.

The fewest percentage of time trailing in the 2025 MLS regular season: