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The odds are that your team isn’t going to win MLS Cup. Even if your team is one of the four teams left, they still probably aren’t going to win MLS Cup. And in typical Daily Kickoff fashion, I’m here to tell you why. Because we’re nothing if not haters around here.
New York Red Bulls
Well… we can’t start without mentioning the decade-plus long precedent they’re going to have to break to just make it to MLS Cup in the first place. And they’d have to break a near 30-year streak of not winning MLS Cup if they got there. So. There’s that.
If we’re focusing a little more on the year at hand, it’s fair to say there’s danger lurking for the Red Bulls. They’d obviously have to win on the road twice to get this done. That’s a tough ask for any team. But what has me really concerned is that there’s a decent chance they’ll be up against two teams happy to dive headlong into a rock fight.
Orlando City are just fine with playing against the ball when they need to. Seattle are just fine playing against the ball when they need to. The Crew and New York City FC aren’t about that. Even as they’ve tweaked their game model, it’s still true that if you aren’t going to overwhelm the Red Bulls on the ball you better start getting comfortable with being uncomfortable. That’s been especially true in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. The Red Bulls have made their way to the Conference Final with possession totals of 28%, 39.5% and 37% in their three wins.
Orlando and Seattle won’t even flinch at having to cede possession and win a few bar fights across the field. They’ll do what it takes if they need to get New York out of their own comfort zone.
The Galaxy are another story. But, man, if any team is going to find a way to break down a stout defense right now, it feels like it’s the team that’s put up 15 goals in three playoff games.
There’s also the fact that the Red Bulls have been second-best in xG in all three games so far. Yeah, yeah, game state. I know. But still. It’s no way to live and keep living.
Orlando City
Orlando City just won their biggest game in club history. They’ve got their new biggest game in club history coming up this Saturday. And then maybe an even bigger one after that. There’s plenty of reason to believe they’ll get that game. Other than one lackluster road performance against Charlotte, they’ve been excellent this postseason. Even when they struggled to find the net in Game Three against The Crown, they still racked up 3.9 xG.
No matter what happens, this has been a special run. If it ends, it ends because they’re only really good at everything without being great at anything. New York is the better counter-attacking side right now. Seattle is the better defensive side. The Galaxy are the much better attacking side.
Ok, fine, the New York thing is a bit of a stretch and probably not all that important, but the Galaxy and Sounders things are real. Seattle have elite defensive numbers, Orlando have very good defensive numbers. The Galaxy have elite attacking talent, Orlando have very good attacking talent. Those are slight differences but they’re the kinds of differences that can tilt the scale in a team’s favor in matchups like this. The good news is that Orlando are the most balanced team remaining. There aren’t clear weaknesses. But sometimes you need more than that to shift high-leverage moments in your favor.
Seattle Sounders
There’s the whole “best defensive side in MLS” thing. That’s real. But so is the whole “it’s not at all clear who’s going to score when they really need to score” thing. That’s also real. If they come up short of yet another semi-surprising but not really run to MLS Cup, the same weakness that has slowed them all season will stop them here.
LA Galaxy
There’s the whole “best attacking quartet in MLS history” thing. That’s real. But so is the whole “being totally liable to give up a goal at a moment’s notice under any circumstances” thing. That’s also real. If the Galaxy come up short of being officially, 1000% all the way back, it will be because the remaining teams are good enough defensively to slow them down in attack (They are!) and because the Galaxy gave up avoidable, game-defining goals at the worst possible times (They could!).
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