WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
OVERREACTING TO MLS IS BACK
We've had to spend the last few days responding to what happened this weekend like a normal person. Lot's of mumbling about how it's just the first game of the season and things change and how soccer is a high variance sport. It's been awful. Why do I have to hedge my bets when you and I both know I'm good and ready to declare winners and losers on all sides for eternity.
Who's given me the authority to do such things? Me. I have. Because I am the guy in the internet comments replying the most while being the wrongest. I am leaning against my Dodge Charger in a Dunkin Donuts parking lot explaining to anyone who will listen how easy life would be if the Navy Seals would let me join but they wouldn't want me showing everyone else up and making them feel bad about themselves. I am fully prepared at all times to explain how and why I would beat Serena Williams if given the opportunity.
I am the ultimate irrationally confident human and I am here to share my MLS takes from matchday one.
NYCFC are doomed.
That looked rough. Really rough. Nashville aside, they looked a lot like the worst versions of the team after Taty Castellanos and Ronny Deila left last season: disjointed, no connective tissues in attack and lacking the match-winning talents they had in their spine last season. When Santiago Rodriguez arrives (is he… uhh… actually going to arrive?), it's not like he's going to instantly correct all of this. It's going to take time. But that's also what they said about Talles Magno as a nine, and that's been given a good chunk of time and doesn't seem to be working.
Even if the attack does click at some point, there are still question marks across the board everywhere else. Gotta think they're on track for the Wooden Spoon here.
Austin FC are also doomed.
Gotta think they're on track for the Wooden Spoon he—ok, real quick, just to clarify, I'm largely doing a bit on a lot of this while plugging in some actual analysis in between. Does everyone get that?
Look, I've always said the sign of a great bit is having to stop in the middle and explain it, but, as I was typing this out, I could feel people screenshotting it and starting a campaign to dox me and send glitter bombs to my house. We're *mostly* overreacting here. Got it? Cool. Going back into character now…
GOTTA THINK THEY'RE ON TRACK FOR THE WOODEN SPOON HERE.
The regression to the mean is coming. After last year's luck-based outcome extravaganza, Austin couldn't catch a break against St. Louis on Saturday. It's a sign that it's all crashing down. Or at least going to be a whole lot more difficult this year. Especially considering whatever is going on with DP midfielder Alexander Ring. It's odd to say the least that 18-year-old Owen Wolff seems to have won the starting job. That's not a comment on Wolff, who is clearly good enough to earn a starting role. It's more that, in general, having a DP lose out on their starting job to a teenager is considered less than ideal roster construction in a salary-cap league with three spots for top end players that are supposed to elevate your ceiling.
The Union are not doomed.
Gotta think they're on track to win CCL, the Supporters' Shield, Leagues Cup and MLS Cup here. They're still bulldozing teams. They've been playing with this particular XI for months now. No one can stop it, and they're only going to get more cohesive and more ruthless. On top of that, they have depth like they've never had before. Joaquin Torres came on and delivered an absurd assist in like the first 30 seconds of his official existence as a Union player.
And on top of *that*, some anonymous front office person decided to talk to The Athletic and say "They aren't even that [redacted] good."
Look, no one needed to give the best team in the league a reason to play the "Nobody believes in us card" and now someone has given them license to use it. Someone laid out the theory this weekend that the anonymous exec was Philly's Ernst Tanner doing a PSYOP, and I'm almost convinced this is true. That won't stop the Union from using it as leverage to beat every team by 40 with no remorse. What if the anonymous exec works for the team they're playing? They can't take any chances.
Atlanta United are doomed.
They looked a lot like last year's team. I mean, up until the moment Derrick Etienne Jr. came onto the field in the second half, they pretty much were the exact team as last year, but let's ignore the part where they were missing three new starters and maybe two other starters and focus on the fact that they can't rely on Thiago Almada to save them with two stunners from outside the box in stoppage time every game. They still took too many shots from outside the box and Luiz Araujo still hasn't put it together. Gotta think they're on track to win the Wooden Spoon.
Atlanta United are not doomed.
Thiago Almada can just kick the ball into the net from like 25 yards away each game. Plus, they're about to add three new starters. They'll be fine. Gotta think they're on track to win the league.
Seattle Sounders are not doomed.
Heber is going to play a huge chunk of minutes and put in the kind of quality striker play the Sounders have missed in the past when Raul Ruidiaz misses time. And he kind of tends to miss a decent amount of time. They'll be able to find the net consistently this year, and a season without CCL should allow them to have a lighter schedule and more time to stew about missing the playoffs. This is a kind of, sort of healthy Sounders team that should stay healthy and stay very, very motivated. Plus, they got Joao Paulo back and he may still be a top-ten player in the league even after an ACL tear. Gotta think they're on track to win the Supporters' Shield.
Noel Buck is your MVP (of the world)
He's getting a ton of praise for his performance against Charlotte and rightly so. The 17-year-old midfielder might just be an answered prayer to New England's recurring problems in midfield thanks to his ability to win the ball, disrupt transition moments and be an active presence. Plus, the Revs highlighted what we wrote about him yesterday on social media, and that's just really solid for my follower count. Gotta think he's on track to win the Ballon d'Or.
And these other teams are also doomed/not doomed.
Inter Miami created nearly three goals worth of xG without Leo Campana. Imagine what they'll do with him? Not doomed.
Orlando City won but had a tough time doing it, so they're doomed. But also not, congrats on the win.
FC Cincinnati won a game despite playing worse than the other team, which is something they didn't do last year, so I think we can go ahead and lock them down as Shield winners. Or maybe consider them doomed. They couldn't even outplay Houston.
Houston is going to win the lea—ok, can we just assume that every team is some level of in trouble and on their way to win the league simultaneously? I don't know y'all, we might need some more information here. I'll get back to you on that. Gotta go jump into some comment sections first.
AND OTHER THINGS
- Colorado Rapids forward Rubio sidelined by knee surgery: The Colorado Rapids will be without forward Diego Rubio during the early portions of their 2023 season. The club announced Monday he's undergone a successful arthroscopic procedure to remove a loose body in his right knee. Rubio, 29, is expected to be sidelined between two to five weeks as he recovers. The Chilean international was Colorado's leading scorer in 2022 with 16 goals and seven assists in 30 matches (28 starts). That equaled the Rapids' single-season scoring record and set a new club record for single-season goal contributions.
FULL TIME
Good luck out there. Get an army behind you.
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