|
There are a whole bunch of ways to win a single soccer game. But we can make our best-educated guess as to what might decide this particular soccer game by stealing a bit from Bill Connelly at ESPN.
LA GALAXY WIN IF…
They get a moment of magic from their front four
You may have heard by now that Riqui Puig is out. There’s good news for the Galaxy though. The rest of their attack is still really damn good. Puig hasn’t done it all alone this year. The Galaxy are the first team in MLS history to have four players reach 10 goals and 10 assists.
The remaining attacking trio of Gabriel Pec, Dejan Joveljic and Joseph Paintsil won’t have a ton of clear-cut opportunities in this one. The Red Bulls’ setup for this game won’t allow for that. But each of them is capable of creating something special out of nothing. And if it’s not them, it might just be whoever steps in for Puig. We know Marco Reus or Diego Fagundez have it in them.
AND/OR
They’re able to limit New York’s transition moments
When we talk about transition moments, we’re talking about New York forcing turnovers in the Galaxy’s first two-thirds of the pitch and heading the other way at speed or counter-attacking opportunities once New York gets into their low block. In both cases, the Galaxy’s defense will have to be at its best. Or at least good enough.
Per Sportec, the Galaxy were tied for last in MLS this season on goals conceded via counterattack. Only three teams allowed more shots from counterattacking situations. Now, those can be defined in different ways, but combined with the eye test, we can generally assume the Galaxy have struggled with transition defense. That could become a major problem if they’re not careful.
AND/OR
They get weirdly better without Riqui Puig
This one is a bit of a stretch, but hear me out.
Long term, this isn’t a thing. The Galaxy aren’t going to be better next year waiting for Puig to get back from his ACL tear. But in a one-off game like this, there’s a chance LA look cohesive in a way New York aren’t expecting.
They only played five matches all season without Puig. It’s been months since we’ve seen LA without him in the starting lineup. When you have a player who’s such an extreme focal point of an attack drop out, a team can sometimes look a little more interconnected. Against a Red Bulls side that’s going to press, maybe LA not reflexively force-feeding Puig is better for the team as a whole and more difficult for New York to overcome.
I’m just saying, we’ve seen this before from teams that are heavily reliant on a No. 10 to guide the way. They show short bursts of extreme competency as a unit before their lack of a reliable chance-creator starts to become apparent.
Also, ya know, it’s not like they’re throwing in an academy kid into their front four and praying they come good on the biggest stage. It’s either going to be Reus or Fagundez.
NEW YORK RED BULLS WIN IF…
They limit a Puig-less attack
The flip side of the “Hey, what if LA actually handles this situation really well without Puig?” is “Oh man, they look totally lost without Puig and New York’s press is ripping them apart and/or they’re making it extremely difficult to break through in the final third.”
Both of those very scary scenarios for LA seem very plausible. We know that the Red Bulls aren’t going to let anything be easy. John Tolkin told media yesterday: “We respect them, but we want to kick the s*** out of them.” This isn’t going to be the kind of casual beatdown the Galaxy were able to deliver in the first two rounds of the playoffs. It’s going to be a lot more like their Conference Final against Seattle with a bit more overwhelming chaos injected into it.
It took a long time for LA to find the net against Seattle. They didn’t create much of anything before that. Without Puig, it’s fair to wonder if they can find that same answer against the Red Bulls’ stout defense.
AND/OR
They can exploit LA’s defense
If the Galaxy are searching for answers in buildup without Puig, they could be in trouble. New York is going to be eagerly chasing down Galaxy players and forcing them to prove they can wriggle their way out of narrow alleys without Puig there as the default safety valve. That should lead to moments where they can rapidly change the direction of travel. How organized will LA be in those moments? And can one of Emil Forsberg, Lewis Morgan or Dante Vanzeir exploit the ensuing reorganization process for LA?
It feels like those opportunities will come. This may just come down to whether Red Bulls’ biggest weakness for years now—finishing off the big chances they create in transition—comes back to bite them.
AND/OR
They capitalize on set pieces
The other option here is that they just bully the Galaxy on set pieces. Tolkin has a heckuva delivery and New York have plenty of size. We saw the Red Bulls get the job done in Orlando thanks to an Andrés Reyes goal off a set piece. Maybe they find him again and that’s that. That’s the least exciting “If” out of all of these, but the Red Bulls and Red Bulls fans won’t care how exciting any of this is. In fact, I’d bet they plan on trying to make this as ugly as possible. That trophy ain’t gonna be any less shiny if you don’t have fun.
|
