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We’ve almost made it. The Conference Semifinals are only a few days away. We’ve taken a look at each remaining team. Now it’s time to take a swing at each remaining matchup. Today, a Western Conference that seems really intent on keeping everything in Los Angeles.
(1) LAFC VS. (4) SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC
Who’s the favorite?
LAFC have eight wins and two draws in their last 10 meetings with Seattle. Seattle have beaten LAFC five whole times in 22 all-time meetings. It’s LAFC.
To be fair though, one of those five wins came in a playoff game where everyone just assumed Seattle would be overmatched. The Sounders thumped the then-best regular-season team of all time in a 3-1 win that sent them to MLS Cup.
Still, it’s been a long, long time since Seattle beat LAFC. Since May of 2021 in fact.
Can the not favorite pull this off?
It’s not totally farfetched. Honestly, from a purely narrative perspective, we might be at the point where Seattle is so sick of hearing about how they can’t beat this damn team that they put in the performance of a lifetime. We have to be close to the breaking point, right?
Beyond that, LAFC don’t feel like a terrible matchup for Seattle, at least in some ways. In theory, forcing LAFC to play with the ball a little more often, taking away the space in behind for them to play in transition, and playing outstanding defense should be a halfway decent formula to make life difficult for them.
The big problem for Seattle is that they’ve been living in game-state hell for most of these matchups. LAFC have scored first in seven of these 10 matchups. Six of those goals came in the first half. On average, those six goals came in the 21st minute. The one time Seattle scored first in the first half, LAFC had scored twice by the 45th minute to take a lead into the locker room.
Seatle has to find a way to score and score early. That hasn’t exactly been a strength for them this year. That being said…
What’s The Daily Kickoff’s prediction?
For the third straight conference semifinal, I’m really tempted to take the road team. I think Round One broke me and now I’m primed to expect the most chaotic postseason ever. If I’m being honest with myself though, my brain says LAFC. My heart though…my heart says that Seattle come out absolutely sick to death of the narrative and throw haymakers. If one or two land, maybe LAFC wobbles a bit. Gut call here: Seattle pulls off the upset because of spite and passion and MLS.
Odds are…
LAFC are still the heavy favorites for a reason though. It’s probably important to point out that they looked awfully vulnerable against Vancouver, but eight wins in 10 tries against the same team isn’t the kind of streak you ignore in MLS. Our totally made-up, off the top of our heads odds for this one suggest that LAFC gets this done on 75% of timelines.
(2) LA GALAXY VS. (6) MINNESOTA UNITED FC
Who’s the favorite?
It’s the Galaxy and I’m not sure I really even need to talk it out. They have an overwhelming amount of firepower. To review: Dejan Joveljic (17g, 7a), Gabriel Pec (17g, 16a), Riqui Puig (17g, 16a), and Joseph Paintsil (11g, 10a) make up the only quartet in MLS history to each reach 10 goals in a season. They are nearly impossible to slow down. And they reminded everyone of that in Round One when they blasted Colorado 5-0 and 4-1 across two games.
Can the not favorite pull this off?
Don’t sleep on the Loons though. We’re still learning about who exactly this team is, following the summer window, but the simplest answer is that they’re winners. Only Inter Miami and Seattle had a better points per game rate following Leagues Cup. The Loons earned 2.11 points per game over nine games while putting up a league-best rate of 1.94 expected points per game over that span. Per American Soccer Analysis, they have the underlying numbers to back up that kind of performance.
That stayed true in Round One. They weren’t perfect, but they did enough to get past a good Real Salt Lake side.
This is a much different and more difficult challenge. However, the Galaxy have their flaws. They’re still an imperfect defensive side. The Loons are going to get opportunities. If new DP Kelvin Yeboah puts one or two away, Minnesota could suddenly be in the driver's seat. The Galaxy are living on a knife’s edge at all times and typically that’s no way to live in the playoffs.
What’s The Daily Kickoff’s prediction?
I still think the Galaxy get the job done here. I’ve loved watching Minnesota go through three separate versions of themselves this season, but LA are at home and have a little too much heat in attack. There’s definitely a version of this game where LA come out flat after a lengthy break between games and Minnesota makes them pay, but I’m not convinced we’re going to get that in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised though.
Odds are…
Our totally made-up, off the top of our heads odds for this one suggest that the Galaxy get this done on 59% of timelines.
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