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Round One starts tonight and so does Inter Miami’s quest for a double. They have plenty to prove before they get there though.
Inter Miami are heavy favorites now, but…
This matchup against Atlanta United is just step one. The Herons are heavy favorites and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them brush aside a hot but flawed Atlanta side with relative ease. That’s not what we’re wondering about though. We’re wondering what happens when they get into a matchup with the best of the best in the East and West.
Tournament play hasn’t been a strength for this current crop of players. They crashed out hard in Concacaf Champions Cup after being outplayed and overwhelmed by CF Monterrey. They imploded in Leagues Cup when they took a 2-0 lead and watched it evaporate in just 13 minutes against Columbus. When they’ve gone up against teams with the talent to exploit their flaws consistently and confidently, they haven’t been able to pull off the magic act that helped guide them to the Supporters’ Shield and points record.
That doesn’t necessarily apply to this series. Atlanta aren't that team. They were perhaps that team when Thiago Almada played his best-ever MLS game in a 3-1 Atlanta win at Miami in May, but they don’t have that kind of firepower right now. Or at least they haven’t shown that kind of firepower in a moment. But this is still a starting point for Inter Miami. It’s step one on their way towards facing off with Columbus again and maybe getting a shot at MLS Cup against one of the West’s best. If they’re going to cement themselves as one of the league’s best-ever teams and maybe the league’s best-ever team, they’ve got to win MLS Cup. That means they’ll have to accomplish something they’ve struggled to do this season when it matters most: Win a must-win game against a team in their weight class.
Does anything change for Miami to make this happen?
In 2018, Tata Martino took a high-scoring, high-wire-walking Atlanta United side and shifted them toward a much more pragmatic approach for the postseason. That worked out pretty well.
The Five Stripes didn’t stop attacking or anything, but they did make a few moves in formation and personnel that shored things up defensively. Would he do the same with this Herons team? Is that the best idea with this group? Is that even possible with this group?
It’s not totally clear. A small part of me thinks it’s not even worth actively trying to limit the defensive issues when you can just stick with what got you the Shield. A larger part of me thinks that you might not even be able to do it with this group. That 2018 Atlanta United side had some dudes defensively who were ready to thrive in a cagier setup. I’m not convinced this Inter Miami side has those kinds of players.
That being said, if you’re going to make a shift like that… well, why make it against Atlanta? Yes, the Five Stripes were the only side to take four points from Miami this year, but it feels like a curveball you’d want to throw to a team that you know for sure can handle your fastball. The Crew are probably the only team in the East you really have to worry about there.
In the end, the Herons probably don’t try and press too many buttons in this series. But the ones they do press will probably tell us a lot about how they’ll try and approach the matchups against scarier monsters down the line.
Atlanta need immediate regression (progression?) to the mean
The Five Stripes are the anti-Miami. For all of the finishing luck the Herons have had this year, Atlanta United have had the opposite. Except, of course, in a 3-1 win against Miami in May where Atlanta went head-to-head with Lionel Messi & Co. and ran them off the pitch. That happened. Now, it did in fact happen in part because Thiago Almada played the match like a World Cup final, but Saba Lobjanidze and Jamal Thiaré both played big roles in an impressive performance.
Atlanta caught a few breaks months later when Inter Miami came to Atlanta. Messi subbed on midway through that game and it immediately opened up into a back-and-forth match that featured huge chances for both teams, ending in a 2-2 draw. So far, the Five Stripes are the only side Miami haven't been able to work their magic on.
It’s not clear how meaningful that is considering how different this Atlanta side is since that May win, and how much healthier Inter Miami are since the 2-2 draw a few weeks ago. But all it would take for this to suddenly get very interesting is for Atlanta to finally catch a little bit of finishing luck on a counterattack. And, regardless of how Miami approach tonight, there should be a little room for Atlanta on the counter.
Just imagine a couple of goals from minimal shots on target flipping this game on its head. At that point, a draw could send this to penalties, Atlanta could escape with a win and this thing could be going back to Mercedes-Benz Stadium with 70,000 people eager to see Atlanta pull off an all-time upset.
It’s not that farfetched. Atlanta keep escaping death, after all. Maybe they really are starting to catch all the breaks they didn’t get this season at just the right time.
However…
Can Atlanta run enough to make this happen?
The Five Stripes have to be exhausted. This will be their third game in six days. One in Orlando, one in Montréal and now one in Ft. Lauderdale. They’ve been up and down the East Coast in high-intensity, must-win matches. We know they’ll be up for the fight at the start of the match, but you have to worry about adrenaline fading and legs getting heavy late. If we’re making predictions about tonight, I’d guess Atlanta show up to fight and run out of juice as the game goes along. Still, Miami will have to be ready for a challenge. They can’t overlook Atlanta… even if they should be feeling pretty confident.
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