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It took 14 matchdays but it finally happened. Nashville delivered the first coaching change of the season yesterday, parting ways with Gary Smith after two seasons in USL and four full seasons in MLS. In that stretch, Nashville never finished lower than seventh in the conference standings and reached the final of last year’s Leagues Cup. Considering the struggles and inconsistencies other expansion teams have faced, it’s hard to look at his tenure as anything other than a success.
But Nashville have taken a step backward over the last few months. Since the Leagues Cup final in August, they’ve earned 1.14 points per game over 22 games. That’s the 23rd-worst mark in the league.
This season, they’re sitting on 14 points over 12 games. That’s not horrific, but, for me, it hints at a lesson: You can have a game model predicated on playing against the ball when you’re winning. But pairing restrictive soccer with middling results is only tolerable for so long.
It makes what’s next for Nashville fascinating. Do they go out and find a manager who wants to institute a similar, counter-attacking style of play? Or do they try to swing towards a more expansive tactical outlook? The former might keep the floor high. The latter might raise the ceiling.
If they steer toward something with a little more entertainment value, it might mean a roster overhaul is coming as well. Those happen slower in MLS than in other leagues, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Nashville blow things up a bit. Then again, we don’t really have a precedent to look at. It’s the first major change the club has undergone at the MLS level.
As of now, it seems like they can at least count on the guys at the top of their roster. DPs Hany Mukhtar and Walker Zimmerman are still among the best players in the league. DP striker Sam Surridge isn’t quite at that level, but he’s been effective enough to earn five goals over his first nine starts this season. Whoever comes in for Nashville won’t be totally empty-handed.
That being said, the story of the team’s time in MLS is that they haven’t had enough firepower to compete with the best teams in the league. They’ve had two players with more than five goals in a season exactly once in four years. Part of that is due to Smith’s game model. The part is that it’s consistently been Mukhtar breaking the game open or nothing. They’re on track to make it two years in five this season thanks to Surridge, however, it’s not unfair to say they’re still lacking consistent threats in attack.
Defensively, they seem relatively fine… as long as Zimmerman is around. In MLS matches with Zimmerman available, the Coyotes have allowed four goals in six games. In the six games without him, they’ve allowed 15 goals.
The bottom line is this team isn’t totally devoid of quality. However, they definitely aren’t among the best rosters in the league. A new manager and game model can only do so much to fix that. Still, it felt like the right time for a breath of fresh air. How they handle this change will determine whether they can become more than a team you expect to get knocked out of the playoffs.
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