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Remember, the running theory around here at The Daily Kickoff is that winning the Supporters’ Shield isn’t about being the team that’s best at soccer, it’s about being the team that’s best at Major League Soccer. There’s a difference. Being good at soccer is still a requirement for winning the Shield of course, but you also have to be able to navigate the strangeness of MLS when it comes to missing players on international duty, dealing with injuries, and issues caused by other assorted MLS-ness over the season.
We know FC Cincinnati have that kind of season-long success in them. They cruised to last year’s Shield for multiple reasons, the main two being able to play elite defense and being able to lean on Lucho Acosta for moments of magic. Those advantages stayed consistent, and they tilted the scales in Cincy’s favor just enough across the course of the season for the Garys to pile up 14 one-goal wins. That’s not a knock against them, that’s a compliment. It’s tough for teams to find advantages on the margins in a salary-capped league. Cincy found them consistently.
That consistency came under threat in the following months, though. They lost striker Brandon Vazquez. They lost center back Yerson Mosquera. They lost wingback Álvaro Barreal.
Most MLS teams wouldn’t be able to handle those departures. But, Cincinnati found at least an equal match for Mosquera by grabbing Miles Robinson in free agency. Cincinnati found wingback Luca Orellano. And, now, Cincy have found their potential Vazquez replacement in Kevin Kelsy. They’ve been able to keep things somewhat near the status quo of last season. And because they’re still outstanding defensively and because Acosta is still Acosta, they’re piling up wins. One-goal wins.
Cincinnati have nine wins on the season. Eight of them have been by one goal. That technically puts them on track to near 2021 New England’s record of 18 one-goal wins. You know, the 2021 New England team that set a points record?
That New England team found their advantages on the margins in different ways than Cincinnati. They still had a game-changing No. 10 in Carles Gil, but they also had more firepower across the board and, most importantly, a goalkeeper in Matt Turner putting up outstanding shot-stopping numbers.
Cincy don’t have Turner, but it’s worth noting that, per FBref, Roman Celentano is leading the league in goals allowed compared to post-shot xG faced per 90. In simple terms, Celentano is keeping out more goals than anyone based on where teams are placing shots against him. His per 90 rate is 0.46, so he’s basically keeping out half a goal above expected per game. In 2021, Turner kept out 0.25 per 90.
Now, don’t get too far ahead. Celentano’s numbers will even out a bit over a full season, but he has been excellent so far. Cincinnati already had an outstanding defense. Adding in an elite shot-stopping performance is unfair. Unsurprisingly, they’ve allowed a league-best 11 goals over 14 games.
That’s, of course, led to a league-best five road wins, a league-best nine wins overall and a league-best 2.14 points per game rate. Yep, they’re averaging more points per game than Inter Miami. We’re 15 match days into the season. It’s time to start openly wondering if Cincinnati are about to earn back-to-back Shield wins.
Obviously, the big issue here is Inter Miami. They are so overwhelmingly talented that they’re consistently outrunning the spreadsheet gods. In a normal year, I could tell you that the Garys are outperforming Miami by a notable margin in every key metric and confidently suggest Cincinnati are actually the favorites. We’re not in a normal year.
But it is another reason to believe FC Cincinnati can get this done. Plus, we have to remember our belief about the Shield. The MLSness that makes winning a Shield challenging is coming again for Inter Miami this summer when they have to deal with absences for international tournaments. Is Lionel Messi missing multiple games for Copa América enough to tilt the scales in Cincy’s favor?
I’m not convinced. But I’m getting closer to saying “yes” each week Cincinnati go out and keep proving their Shield-winning formula is intact.
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