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Two teams in the East look capable of finishing first in the conference. It’s going to be Inter Miami or FC Cincinnati. As of now, there’s no other viable option.
The picture isn’t nearly as clear out West. After 14 games, Real Salt Lake are averaging 2.00 points per game but Minnesota United are doing the same through 12 games. Both LA teams aren’t far behind, the Rapids and Vancouver could get hot at any moment, and, somehow, Austin are doing that thing again.
So, who’s going to end up on top? Well, here’s where each contender stands.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 1.46 points per game
Vancouver is as low as I’m willing to go in the standings for a potential Western Conference winner. Houston can’t score, St. Louis are good and nothing more or less, Seattle is broken, Portland can’t defend, FC Dallas are injured, Sporting KC are old and San Jose are technically worse at defending than Portland.
The ‘Caps are nine points back of RSL, but they have a game in hand and a roster that’s good enough to compete with better teams in the league and roll past bad teams. The problem is that they don’t have enough high-level talent to consistently dominate the mid-level teams and earn points against the best teams. We’ve seen it repeatedly in the last couple of years.
They can change that this summer by potentially adding a third designated player, but that’s a long way off. They’ll need to get hot immediately and make a genuine push for the top of the conference before Leagues Cup before adding that key piece. Those are big asks right now.
Colorado Rapids - 1.5 points per game
We’ve officially reached the point where we can call the Rapids’ high-profile offseason a success. The team that won five games last season has won six through their first 14 games this season.
A run to the top of the conference is a big ask though. As good as Cole Bassett and company have been, this team is still limited by the top of its roster. Djordje Mihailovic has been pretty much the same player we remembered from Montréal, but it’s not clear how much faith you can put in fellow DPs Rafael Navarro and Kévin Cabral.
Navarro has at least come good statistically this season, putting up eight goals and two assists over 1137 minutes. Unfortunately, four of those are from penalties and his underlying numbers aren’t anywhere near an elite DP level. His loan technically expires in July and it's unclear if the Rapids will exercise their option to make the transfer permanent. Meanwhile, the risk they took on Cabral hasn’t paid off. He has three goals and four assists in 22 starts since arriving before the 2023 season.
Like the ‘Caps, it feels like they need more production from the top of their roster to find themselves at the top of the West by Decision Day. They could potentially rework their DP situation this summer, but it might be too late if they aren’t already within striking distance.
Still, don’t get it twisted. They’ve done an outstanding job getting things back to this point. Last year felt bleak. This year has been a complete 180.
Austin FC - 1.57 points per game
My brain says: If the team that’s averaging 1.01 expected points per game finishes first in the Western Conference I will never use another statistic again.
My heart says: That’s exactly why they’ll finish first.
Look, we talked about it more in-depth yesterday. But Austin have a decent roster that could get a lot better when they replace former DP Emiliano Rigoni this summer. It feels like we’re heading toward the first busy summer of sporting director Rodolfo Borrell’s time in charge of this roster. It’s doubtful that will be enough this year, but hey, we were all there in 2022.
LA Galaxy - 1.57 points per game
The Galaxy certainly have enough firepower to make a run to the top. They’re third in MLS in expected goals per game at 1.79 xG per 90. The problem is that only three teams have been worse defensively this season. LA are allowing 1.67 xG per 90. That’s worse than San Jose, who have allowed a league-worst 33 goals on the season.
It’s not clear how that’s going to get better. They could, in theory, win enough 3-2 games to finish on the top of the West, but the probability of that seems low. For them to feel like a favorite, something would have to give defensively. As of now, it’s not clear how they’ll look to sort that out this summer.
If they can, they’ll be a genuine MLS Cup contender. It will just probably be too late to finish on top of the conference.
LAFC - 1.62 points per game
Are LAFC the actual favorites?
They haven’t
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