When expectations are at the highest possible level, the odds of living up to them are slim. Inter Miami were always going to be fighting an uphill battle against the hope that they could take a quick detour to win Concacaf Champions Cup, come back and win the Supporters’ Shield and Leagues Cup, and then cruise to MLS Cup. That kind of run is on the very extreme of what anyone thought could be possible, but they’re the only team in MLS history who made that kind of fringe idea feel even remotely tangible. Then the injuries came and they haven’t stopped coming.
Even still, the Herons had a strong (although Messi-less) lineup out there last night. At least they did until David Ruiz got consumed by the dark haze of Concacaf and picked up his first, maybe second — they, uh, may have forgotten he already had a first yellow — and then maybe third yellow card to finally earn a red card for no reason. He probably doesn’t even remember what happened. My working theory is that Concacaf possesses different souls for a while and that the hosts black out during these periods. Either that or Concacaf exists as an unseen magnetic force whose pole runs opposite to MLS players. Ruiz surrendered to that force like a moth to a malevolent flame.
Anyway, if this sounds like an obituary, it kind of is. Up until the red card last night, Inter Miami’s CCC dreams were alive and thriving. They were up 1-0 on Monterrey and in relative control against one of the continent’s best and biggest teams. When Rayados scored an equalizing away goal moments after the red card, the Herons’ task became immeasurably more difficult. When the second goal came just before full-time, the Herons’ task became damn near Sisyphean.
Monterrey have never lost a Concacaf series to an MLS team. They’ve only been eliminated by an MLS team in competition once. That came in last year’s 2-0 Leagues Cup loss on the road at Nashville. Their overall record against MLS competition is now 18W-3L-2D. One of those losses came in a second leg after they had essentially clinched the series in the first leg.
Inter Miami now have to go on the road and break a decade-plus long trend. And it’s not clear if they’ll have Lionel Messi around to help them do it. Even with Messi back from his hamstring injury, it’s tough to envision what a comeback at Estadio BBVA even looks like. We’ve never seen it.
If last night’s disastrous 25-minute stretch really did bring the end of Inter Miami’s CCC hopes, then their focus will have to shift to prizes that don’t carry the same weight as a regional title. That doesn’t mean that 2024 is a failure, but a quarterfinal exit from CCC isn’t what anyone had in mind when the Herons brought in some of the best players in the history of the sport.
A trophy or three would provide a salve, but those are far from a guarantee for this group right now. If they’re somewhere near healthy, they’ll be a popular pick to repeat as Leagues Cup champions and earn their first MLS Cup, but they haven’t had much injury luck this year. And as far as Supporters’ Shield goes, their underlying numbers like American Soccer Analysis’ expected points and Goals Added metrics suggest they’ve been a below-average side through their first seven games. Nothing is coming as easy as it seemed like it might.
All that being said, a pre-write for an obit doesn’t mean someone is dead. They won’t be fully gone until dirt is on the coffin. If Messi can make the trip to Monterrey, they have a chance. Even without him, something feels wrong about counting Miami out entirely. But, as of now, it already feels like a two-year window — Messi’s contract runs through 2025 — to be Concacaf’s best side is starting to close. Someone is going to have to step up and throw it back open.
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