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Y’all should know the rules around here by now. But if you need a reminder, I’ll let you know that in this house we believe that the numbers don’t really matter all that much until about 10 games in and that we never truly know if an MLS team is good or bad until about 34 or so games in. And even then, I mean, who really knows?
Most teams are four games in now, though, and we can already start to notice a few patterns and get a sense of what results mean for teams. For example…
It might be time to worry about LAFC…
We looked up at one point during this offseason and realized that LAFC suddenly felt like a bit of a mess. After an imperfect 2023 season that saw them reach a whole bunch of finals and come up short despite those imperfections, LAFC already had some questions heading into 2024. After an offseason that saw them lose multiple starters, those questions loomed a little larger, even after they found a way to bring Eduard Atuesta back.
Four games in, and they have more open DP spots than wins. Their one win on the year came against a Seattle side that we’ll get to in a second, and their two DP spots are still very vacant. Trust us, we understand teams can start a little slow and still be just fine in MLS, but you just expect more from LAFC. After their loss to Minnesota this weekend, they have four points from four games and a -4 goal differential. Nothing feels exciting about this side. They’ve scored two more goals than you and I have. Something is off, and it may not get wholly fixed until two big signings arrive…if they get those signings right.
And don’t forget Seattle…
Meanwhile, Seattle looked relatively comfortable against Colorado this weekend before a goofy double yellow from Josh Atencio sent things trending in the wrong direction. The Rapids put in a solid performance to earn a point on the road and the Sounders now have just two points through three games.
At the start of the year, it felt like the only things that could derail this team from being one of the most consistent and effective sides in the West were injuries and continued issues in front of goal. Well, the guy they brought in to help solve that problem, DP attacker Pedro de la Vega, is injured. That’s in addition to several other key players who have already missed time this year, some of whom will continue to miss time. Neither midfielder João Paulo nor goalkeeper Stefan Frei have taken the field yet for the Sounders.
Basically, it feels like the window for Seattle to jump ahead of a diluted West and take control of the conference is closing fast. Maybe it’s already closed. This is almost certainly a playoff team, but we may need to reassess some expectations.
And Dallas…
Speaking of reassessing some expectations…
Well, maybe not expectations, maybe it’s more like hopes. I hoped Dallas would be able to put it together and look like a group set to compete at the top of the conference. So far, they’ve looked like a group that might be struggling to make the playoffs.
Yeah, they’ve been dealing with injuries too, but they haven’t quite been injured enough to excuse how poor they’ve looked. Besides, staying healthy is a skill, right? It seems like it might be one that key pieces on this team struggle with.
Overall, they aren’t healthy, they look disjointed, their switch to a back three didn’t go as planned, and they have three points through four games. Their lone win came in the dying seconds of a match against a Quakes side that already seems to be clearing space in their cupboard for a Wooden Spoon. It’s not great. Throw Dallas on the pile with the rest of the teams in the West that have been a disappointment to start the year.
Atlanta United can defend now
Heading into the offseason, it felt fair to compare 2023 Atlanta with 2022 FC Cincinnati. Both were teams with high-level attacking talent and low-level defensive traits that kept them from ever feeling in total control of any game. That 2022 Cincy side scored 64 times and allowed 56 goals. 2023 Atlanta scored 66 times and allowed 53 goals.
Point being that Atlanta felt a few defensively solidifying moves away from being able to truly compete. We all know what happened for Cincy last year once they got it together at the back. It feels like the Five Stripes have pulled off something similar.
The new center back pairing of Stian Gregersen and Derrick Williams has immediately altered this team’s ability to defend in its own box for the better. New No. 6 Bartosz Slisz covers ground at an elite level and, along with midfield partner Tristan Muyumba, puts in the work defensively that past Atlanta midfielders either wouldn’t or just couldn’t do physically.
Atlanta kept Orlando quiet on Sunday and, despite Thiago Almada struggling, still had enough talent to find the net a couple of times. An Atlanta side playing quality defense will eventually find a way in attack, even on off nights. That feels like a formula for a ton of points.
Joseph Paintsil is a star
We’ve mentioned it a few times, but it’s worth reiterating that Joseph Paintsil is going to be the best player on the pitch in nearly every game this season. The Galaxy finally have a match-winner on the wing and that means they have an elite attack. They’re still feeling some things out defensively, but they’re another team that seems set to rack up points this year, even if it’s just on firepower alone. In most cases, their performance this weekend against St. Louis turns into a win. I don’t think they have to worry about too many overhead kick goals from center backs going forward.
Then again, this is MLS, you never know…
New England is officially playing catch up from here on out
With their loss to Cincy on Saturday, the Revs have now lost four straight to start the year. And it’s not going to get much easier for them after they moved on to the quarterfinals of CCC this week. I know it’s a long season, but you can only fall behind by so much before you’re in genuine trouble. I’d call four losses to start the year something close to genuine trouble. That’s especially true in this version of the Eastern Conference.
New York City FC: Not totally panicking as much at least for a week
NYCFC got a win! They even came back from a deficit and then held on to a lead despite going down to ten men to do it! That doesn’t mean their season is saved or anything, but it’s a much-needed positive step forward. It felt a little dire there for a second.
Columbus: Good
I mean, they just absolutely thumped New York. Like didn’t even blink at the pressure the Red Bulls were trying to apply. We try not to get our hopes around here, but maybe the Crew have a little something for Tigres in CCC in a couple of weeks. It feels like they’re that good.
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