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As always, we can talk all we want about who the better team is heading into a big game. But, in the end, all that really seems to matter in MLS is who's at home. FC Cincinnati and LAFC have the advantage heading into tomorrow's Conference Finals. But both Columbus and Houston can pull off the upset here. Just a few things need to break their way. All they need to do to make that happen is find a winning formula. Let's do some math.
Movement (Cucho + Rossi + Matan) - Cincinnati Starters = Space
"Columbus and Wilfried Nancy play some of the prettiest soccer in the league." We say that a lot without really qualifying it. When we talk about the Crew's aesthetics, we're largely talking about a team that understands how to create space for itself and take advantage of it.
In particular, the Crew's front three love to drag defenders out of position and create space for their fellow forwards or for the wingbacks as they push up the field. Having a midfield pairing of Darlington Nagbe and Aidan Morris allows them to take risks with that movement. The Columbus attackers can be confident that someone has their back if they decide to take a risk and make a run.
It's a lot to deal with even if you have all your starters. FC Cincinnati won't have all their starters in this one. Defender of the Year Matt Miazga is suspended and Cincy will have to take on the Crew with a more makeshift approach than they hoped. There's going to be a major burden on Yerson Mosquera in the center of their back three. He, along with Ian Murphy and Álvaro Barreal, will have to be effective in communication and understanding of the pockets of space the Crew are attempting to open up. That task gets even harder if starting No. 6 Obinna Nwobodo can't go for Cincy. He's been battling injuries recently.
If the Crew can exploit those weaknesses and find opportunities in behind, then they have an excellent chance to do what they've done all season: Make life hell for opposing back lines.
Perfect Possession - Transition opportunities + (Bouanga-10) - Set piece disasters = Limited Chances
The fact of the matter is that Dénis Bouanga is going to get his. Unless we throw in some luck to this formula, he's going to find opportunities to make a difference, especially in transition. That's not ideal news for a team like Houston that thrives off quick passing in midfield and pinging the ball around. It looks beautiful when it works, but even slight mistakes can turn into transition moments heading the other way. That's where Bouanga is at his best.
Houston have to be something close to perfect in possession tomorrow night. They won't stay perfect the entire night, but when LAFC start heading goalward at speed, they need to make sure they're doing everything in their power to keep Bouanga in check. If they can limit him just enough to keep his chances at a minimum and catch a break or two, then it doesn't really seem like the rest of LAFC has the kind of juice in attack we've come to expect. They just don't scare you like they used to.
At least not in open play. LAFC have been one of the best teams in the league this year on set pieces. Houston will have to be sharp on corners and free kicks. If they can do that and slow down Bouanga just enough, they'll just have to pray that the rest of LAFC's supporting cast doesn't suddenly come good. And that some Dynamo player will have the ability to turn that aesthetically pleasing possession into a high-quality chance.
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