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Hell Is Real tonight. You’ve got a full-on “Yeah, but…” rivalry matchup here. When you win a game as big as this, it’s an argument-ender until something equally important happens. You can win the next 20 matchups between you and your rival, but if they win a “Yeah, but…” match like this, they can just say “Yeah, but the 2023 Eastern Conference Final” and nothing else will matter. It’s a big one. Here’s what might decide it.
1. Missing pieces
We’ve been talking about it all week and it’s worth repeating. FC Cincinnati will be without MLS Defender of the Year Matt Miazga and will very likely be missing DP No. 6 Obinna Nwobodo for a decent portion of the game. Even if he’s able to start, it sounds like he won’t be 100%. FC Cincinnati will not only have to adjust defensively against the best attacking team in the league, but will have to find a way to stay cohesive enough in build-up to get the ball to their playmaker, Lucho Acosta. Matt Doyle explained it better than I can in his Conference Finals mailbag:
I think we already saw some of that from Cincy in the scrappy 1-0 win over the Union. The Garys were defensively organized (no shock there), but struggled to move the ball to good spots in rhythm. Partially that’s just what it means to play against Philly – they make your life hell. But partially, that’s what it means to go out there without a handful of your best players. The ball moves a little bit slower and windows close a little bit more quickly.
And so Lucho Acosta was kind of anonymous. He still managed to play a significant role in the game’s only goal (it was his quick free kick that started the sequence), but he otherwise was not able to put much of an imprint on the game.
2. Nagbe and Morris pulling the strings
If Nwobodo can’t go today, the Crew seem to have a distinct advantage in central midfield. Even with Nwobodo, I’d give the edge to Darlington Nagbe and Aidan Morris. With both teams setting up in formations that essentially mirror each other (basically 3-4-1-2 vs. 3-4-2-1), there likely won’t be many opportunities to create numbers advantages. To some extent, that means the ability of your personnel to execute and affect the game matters more than tactics. Having two players like Nagbe and Morris impacting multiple phases of play in a way Cincy’s midfield might not be able to seems like a really big deal.
3. TQL Stadium
You might have picked up on it, but I’m a bit worried about the absences for Cincy. If you forced me to make a pick in what’s essentially a toss-up game, I’d lean towards the Crew. It’s not just about the personnel, it’s about the connective tissue that comes from consistency and allows teams to peak at the right time. The Crew are trending towards that. Cincy feel like they’re having to build the plane while flying it.
That being said, the Garys have more than enough to win this game. And, most importantly, they’re at home. Considering the stakes and the Ohio of it all, we might see an all-time crowd at TQL Stadium tonight. Just a madhouse from start to finish. That kind of influence on the players might be enough to level the playing field or even tilt it in Cincy’s favor.
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