Good morning, y'all. Your pal Sam here. Let's soccer.
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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
QUESTIONS FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION FROM MATCHDAY 8
We're eight games in, so, technically, we can start looking at underlying numbers like xG and start putting some stock into its predictive qualities. You should probably actually wait till 10 games in to really do that, but there seems to be some disagreement. We'll just split the difference and only use it when it justifies our opinions.
In general though, we'll continue to hold off on giving too many opinions and instead keep asking questions. Keep in mind though, we're somehow basically a quarter of the way into the season. Some of these teams have shown us who they are and that's not going to change.
1. Did Portland just rescue their season?
On Saturday we talked about how both Seattle-Portland and LAFC-LA featured two rivals heading in polar opposite directions. We considered how both games had the potential to get ugly in favor of the team not sitting at the bottom of the conference. And, most importantly, we took into account the MLS of it all.
"If we were ranking matchups in MLS where it would make absolutely no sense on paper for the far worse team to show up and pull out a huge win against all explanation but they do it anyway, El Trafico would be a surefire first, Portland-Seattle would be somewhere close to second. If we check back in on Monday and Portland and LA are touting potentially season-altering wins, don't be surprised. Just say "Yep, seems like MLS" and move on."
So, yeah. Here we are. And Portland is touting a potentially season-altering win (the Galaxy are very much not) after the best 18-minute stretch in team history. They went from trailing 1-0 to winning 4-1 in an instant against their biggest rival and technically jumped into a playoff spot. And, despite losing Eryk Williamson for the year earlier in the week, they're slowly but surely starting to look a little healthier. Not healthy. But healthier.
Did Portland just rescue their season? Well, to be honest, no. No they did not. I could be wrong but breaking off four goals in 18 minutes on about 1.0 xG worth of chances probably isn't all that replicable. At least not against normal MLS teams. Although they could probably do it at this point if they play Seattle every week.
All considered, they still have a ton of question marks. Missing Williamson didn't matter much this week but it will matter more and more as the season goes on. And they still have the worst underlying numbers in the Western Conference. This feels like one of those moments in the season that will only get funnier as time goes on. At least Timbers fans will have that silver lining.
2. Do we want to worry about Cincy now?
Worry is probably too strong a word. However, we've been saying for a few weeks now that Cincy's tendency to play and win 1-0 games just didn't feel all that sustainable. Winning one-goal games can get you pretty far in MLS – just ask the 2021 Revs – but it usually takes luck and Matt Turner to carry you to the top.
This isn't a "IS CINCY ACTUALLY BADD?????" talk or anything like that. Cincy have collected plenty of points and their underlying numbers are among the best in the league. It's more about wondering whether this weekend's 5-1 mollywhopping from St. Louis provided a bit of a wake-up call. We knew that the Garys had another gear or two above what they've been showing. But if you don't need to reach those gears to pull out wins, why reach them?
Now they know it's going to take a little more. Or at least I hope they do. I know it's not as simple as getting thumped and realizing you need to flip the "Play soccer good" switch. But it does feel like the result could spark some sense of urgency. This team has the pieces to be a Shield contender but hasn't shown the ability to play the kind of high-level ball you would expect from a team with those pieces.
3. Are CF Montréal set to break the fewest points record?
In 2013, D.C. United took the bold step of winning three games on their way to setting an MLS record for the fewest points in a season (while also hilariously winning the US Open Cup by beating four MLS teams). They finished the year at a rate of 0.47 points per game for the season. After losing to 2023 D.C. United this weekend, CF Montréal are currently on a 0.43 points per game pace.
Now, to be fair, we're talking about a much smaller sample size. But we're also talking about a CF Montréal team that just traded away their All-Star-caliber center back, Kamal Miller, along with $1.3 million in GAM in one of the most inexplicable trades in MLS history. They have incredibly little left from last year's near Supporters' Shield-winning team.
It's not all that surprising, considering their talent exodus and a hard cut to Losada Ball, that they've won just one game and scored in just one game. But now they've actively chosen to make that exodus even more pronounced. It doesn't feel like they're suddenly about to get better, either. The eye test has them as clearly the worst team in the league and the underlying numbers (small sample size!) have them as worse off than 2013 D.C. United.
Winning just three games in an MLS season is a pretty spectacular level of futility. I don't think Montréal will end up quite that bad when all is said and done. But I also don't think anyone can confidently say that for sure, and that says a lot about the current situation.
4. So we're going to do that thing where we trick ourselves into thinking the Fire might have it this year, huh?
No. No we're not. We're all collectively smarter than that………………….
HOWEVER…look, they should have beaten the Union this week, they have the seventh-best points per game pace in the East, and the underlying numbers like them a little more than that. It's too early to start believing. There's obviously precedent for absolutely not doing that under any circumstances. But, maybe, just maybe, the "Ok, yeah, I can see it" portion of the season lasts longer than normal this year before it spirals into the "Oh no, they got me again!" portion of the season kicks in.
The Fire are playing fine so far. They're getting a lot right early on, even if some of the lack of quality on the defensive/mental side of things has peeped through a few times so far. Seriously, they should have beaten the Union. They just blew up during a three-minute stretch and allowed two goals. They still have work to do to shake off some of their worst instincts. But, for now, what's the harm in putting just a tiny bit of hope into this process? Like a really, really, really tiny bit.
THE READING RAINBOW
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